It’s fair to say that the Conservative Party is not currently at the centre of attention. Oppositions rarely are, especially when they have been all but obliterated at the most recent general election. The antics of President Donald Trump mean that domestic politics is often overshadowed, though the hard fiscal choices faced by Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves mean that this will soon change.
Yet even as an opposition party, the Tories receive less attention than Reform. The Liberal Democrats – with the ability to position themselves as the anti-Trump, pro-EU party – also occupy a more distinctive space.
But for the Conservatives, greater attention would not necessarily be positive. The truth is that morale is very low. Whatever the fiscal difficulties that Labour faces or the schisms within Reform, there is no sign of a Tory revival.
The murmurings about Kemi Badenoch’s leadership are getting louder. Her recent performances at Prime Minister’s Questions have been poor, not helped by the fact that Starmer has appeared increasingly confident. But the most damaging charge against her is that of laziness.
This is not new. As business secretary – a position she did not enjoy – she acquired a reputation for not reading her briefs. Senior business leaders found her inaccessible simply because she was unwilling to put in the time to meet them and, if she did, was under-prepared and ill-informed about the relevant issues.
This was partly because her interests lay elsewhere. Badenoch combined the business role with being minister for women and equalities, in which she was able to focus on her criticisms of identity politics. As party leader, she has continued in the same vein. This is not to dismiss her arguments (there are runs to be scored on this topic for parties of the right if parties of the left allow it) but elections are nearly always won or lost on the economy.
The criticism of Badenoch is not just that she is making a strategic error – by focusing on cultural issues, not economic ones – but that this is driven by her unwillingness to leave her comfort zone because it would require too much time and effort.
A similar point is made in two other contexts. First, on campaigning, the complaint is that she does not get out of London enough. Regional media often provides a good opportunity for opposition leaders but is currently under-exploited by Badenoch because she is not spending enough time in the regions.
Second, the Tories are struggling on fundraising, as evidenced by a substantial round of redundancies at Conservative Campaign Headquarters. Badenoch hopes to increase the party membership but, even if she succeeds, this is not going to raise the money she requires. Instead, she needs a decent number of large donors willing to contribute five-, six- or even seven-figure sums to the party. The problem is that this often requires the party leader to spend time schmoozing potential donors, time that she is reluctant to give up.
The post of leader of the opposition is an exhausting one that requires the holder to dedicate themselves to tasks they may find tedious – engaging in issues that are not their personal priority, travelling out of London to campaign, wining and dining potential donors. If Badenoch cannot or will not do any of this, her leadership is doomed.
Increasingly, Tories from across the party are concluding that she is simply not working hard enough to succeed. There does not appear to be an imminent move to replace her but talk of who could succeed Badenoch is commonplace. The names most frequently mentioned are the former foreign secretary James Cleverly and shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick. There is a third name also being uttered in Tory circles: Boris Johnson.
It is true to say that one should always be cautious about writing him off. There is certainly a body of opinion in the Conservative Party that believes Johnson is able to work electoral miracles, a view which he undoubtedly shares. I suspect that he has the appetite for a return, but there is surely no route back for him at present.
Johnson is not, of course, an MP. To succeed Badenoch, he would have to first return to parliament in a by-election. Finding the right seat for his return would be far from straightforward. There are now few safe Tory seats, and of those that remain it is far from obvious there are incumbents who would be willing to stand aside for Johnson. Oliver Dowden, for instance, has long been expected to resign his Hertsmere seat, but – as someone who played an important role in Johnson’s downfall and as a close ally of Rishi Sunak – would be unlikely to go out of his way to help.
Even if a winnable by-election was to occur, the central party enjoys a great deal of control over candidate selection. Badenoch would be signing her leadership death warrant if she allowed Johnson to stand as a Conservative candidate – she won’t do it.
This brings us back to the candidates who finished second and third last time round, both of whom appear to desire the leadership. A Jenrick vs Cleverly contest at some point in the next few years looks more likely than not.
[See also: Keir Starmer’s great gamble]
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